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Flights of fancy – how to figure trends for Airline tickets.

Google Flights Fees tracking

Google Flights Fees tracking between PNQ and YUL and back, economy fares.

Couple of weeks ago, either on some mailing list, on IRC or somewhere else, somebody mentioned that people always put higher amount of airline expenditure for self when asking for sponsorship.

Now last year, between sending the application and getting the approval for sponsorship, there was 3 months of difference between the two. Now if you put up an application for sponsorship like I did last year, I had added 10% to the cost of flight tickets of the cheapest prevailing prices at that point in time on skyscanner or any of the meta-search-engines were showing me at that point in time.

I was sceptical whether the amount that I had put for the to and fro tickets would be enough or not. Strangely, I was lucky enough to get my ticket around the new estimated price. I would have to mention though that there were only 2 tickets left at the new price and if I had waited just a few hours more, those tickets would have gone too and all other tickets were around 25% more than before. The only reasons I could fathom are –

a. Luck, pure and simple.

b. Going at the end of the tourism season – This was evident as I was able to book my extended stay at any hostel just 2 days before my stay at UCT (University of Cape Town) was over. Was corroborated by hostel staff, shop-owners as well as whatever info. I found on the web before and during my stay in SA.

c. South Africa being more lenient than probably Canada is giving and processing visas.

While looking at the third point, thought I better check world tourism rankings and saw the Wikipedia page for it. Interestingly, South Africa seems to have a slight edge over Canada when it comes to statistics and hence strengthens my assumptions that probably more people apply for SA than Canada as they know the possibility of more people making through visa processing. It would stand to be logical that more people would apply for a tourist or similar short-term resident visas if they know they have a good chance going through.

While researching on the topic I also came across/ hunted to find the hardest places to get a Visa for and was surprised to find India being lasted therein.Coincidentally, that site also has a UK domain.It does burst the bubble in ‘Incredible India’ a little bit.

As a newbie who had no clue I knew I was probably a victim of Information Asymmetry where the airlines have much more information about travel trends, ongoing trends at Airports, Politics and Economics of Countries, Price of Crude Oil, Profit, Competition and probably many more factors that I haven’t taken into account which decide fares.

While researching on the topic, one of the interesting finds I had while trying to figure the above is that Airlines didn’t pass on fuel savings to their customers. Now I don’t know whether this was the same around the world or was this only in UK. I am shocked that British (and by definition EU, as UK was part of EU at that time) travellers or consumer groups didn’t file a suit in the court of law as reading the above smells of anticompetitive behaviour. The most shocking statement was this –

“Average fares to Spain rose by 10 per cent over the same period.” – Telegraph, UK.

In order to lessen this information asymmetry a bit, I used google flights and its data of the past 2 months to see how the fares have been changing to have some insight of where the fares might end up. I know google is hated by one and all, but in this instance I couldn’t find any comparable site which does this kind of thing.

As can be seen in the graph, the tickets had started relatively cheap from around INR 65k ish to around 80k ish at this point in time. That is a jump of around 30% in the last couple of months. All of these flights have a layover somewhere in Europe and taking a second flight from there to Canada.

The one which didn’t show much of action is the direct plan between BOM – YUL and back but then this seems to be a premium service . Taking a direct flight from BOM – YUL is north of INR 90k/- which doesn’t make much sense unless one is fond of spending 13+ hours in flight. Definitely not my cup of tea.

With layovers it makes the experience a bit more bearable.

While the real action is probably 3 or bit more months away, its interesting to see how things are panning out at least on airline price tickets and the dynamics involved therein.

Even with all the above attempts at finding the answer, I’m no closer to figuring out to estimate airline ticket prices when window is largish 3 months in making. Any ideas anybody?

If the previous jump is any indication, then 10-15% escalation bit might not hack this time around. Any strategies that people could advise while trying to put a ball-park figure.

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